DICCA's calibrated operational forecast system

48-hour daily forecast from 00 UTC analysis

Andrea Mazzino's home

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• Wind speed

About us

The activity has been carried out following the successful experience gained by the working group in the calibration of wind speed forecasts to operate with highly reliable forecasts in the renewable energy market.
To date, 3 researchers, in addition to myself, have contributed substantially to the working group: Dr. Eng. Gabriele Casciaro, our research fellow during the phases of study and implementation of the calibrations, currently in force at EGO Energy, Dr. Mattia Cavaiola, formerly PhD student and currently research fellow, Dr. Francesco Ferrari, formerly PhD student, then postdoctoral fellow during the phase of the calibration setting and currently researcher at the University of Milano Statale.


L’attività è stata portata avanti a valle dell’esperienza di successo maturata dal gruppo di lavoro nella calibrazione delle previsioni della velocità del vento per operare con previsioni ad alta affidabilità nel mercato delle rinnovabili.
Al gruppo di lavoro hanno ad oggi fornito un importante contributo 3 ricercatori, oltre al sottoscritto: il dott. ing. Gabriele Casciaro, nostro assegnista di ricerca durante la fase di studio e messa in opera delle calibrazioni, attualmente in forza ad EGO Energy, il dott. Mattia Cavaiola, già nostro dottorando di ricerca ed attualmente nostro assegnista di ricerca, il dott. Francesco Ferrari, già nostro dottorando, poi nostro assegnista nella fase di messa a punto delle calibrazioni ed attualmente ricercatore in servizio presso l’Università degli Studi di Milano Statale.

Starting from the operational forecasts on a daily basis (GFS analysis at 00 UTC) produced by WRF model, we obtain calibrated meteorological forecasts of the 10-m wind speed for the locations corresponding to the main Italian METAR stations. Soon, the same product will be available for locations in the Mediterranean sea where wind measurements are present. The calibration is based on the dynamic calibration strategy, called D-EMOS, proposed, developed and validated by our group in several research activities applied to renewables. The observation stations we consider allow both the dynamic calibration of the raw WRF forecasts and a continuous monitoring of the residual error of the forecast analyzed over the recent past. The D-EMOS strategy also provides the forecast uncertainty obtained from the calibrated predictive distribution.

Contact:
andrea.mazzino@unige.it

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