DICCA's calibrated operational forecast system

48-hour daily forecast from 00 UTC analysis


Andrea Mazzino's home

Starting from the operational forecasts on a daily basis (GFS analysis at 00 UTC) produced by WRF model, we obtain calibrated meteorological forecasts of the 10-m wind speed for the locations corresponding to the main Italian METAR stations. Soon, the same product will be available for locations in the Mediterranean sea where wind measurements are present. The calibration is based on the dynamic calibration strategy, called D-EMOS, proposed, developed and validated by our group in several research activities applied to renewables. The observation stations we consider allow both the dynamic calibration of the raw WRF forecasts and a continuous monitoring of the residual error of the forecast analyzed over the recent past. The D-EMOS strategy also provides the forecast uncertainty obtained from the calibrated predictive distribution.


Scientific basis:

Powered by Mattia Cavaiola